Challenging Need for Electricity

Allegheny Energy has been stating that there is a critical need to construct the PATH transmission line based on PJM’s (regional transmission authority) projections. PJM’s recent calculations show there will be a critical situation in 2014 unless the PATH line is constructed. The following information and chart shows the need for PATH is based on a faulty assumption.

Energy usage has declined the past two years.

PJM in 2009, revised their 2007 forecast of energy usage from 1.67% to 2.5% per year for 2010 to 2012 in order to show a critical need in 2014. It is highly unlikely that energy usage between 2010 and 2012 would be greater in a recession than in a healthy economy. The 2009 forecast claims energy usage will increase 10.2% between 2010 and 2012.

US Department of Energy/Energy Information Administration (DOE\EIA) calculations show a total increase of 10% (critical situation/PJM) would not occur until 2019.

The difference between the 2009 PJM and the DOE/EIA forecasts clearly raises a question as to the validity of PJM numbers.

DOE/EIA numbers are more reliable. PJM numbers are biased as its organization includes those who would profit from PATH.

PJM vs DOE and EIA Numbers

Annual Energy Outlook 2009 with Projections to 2030

East Coast Governors Transmission Letter

Distributed Power

Electricity Prices Plummet August 12, 2009